The Scientific Wild-Ass Guess

Project estimation is hard, especially when you've got a basic set of requirements in an RFP with little to no knowledge of the business drivers, potential risks, or deeper integration requirements for a solution. Enter the SWAG, or Scientific Wild-Ass Guess.

With little information to go on, how do we estimate successfully projects which may take months to actually deliver upon. The SWAG uses an approach not dissimilar to Fermi estimations, where intuition and subject matter knowledge can be combined to provide a good idea of the level of effort required to build entire projects.

This talk will take us through the steps of creating a SWAG, breaking requirements down into features, applying difficulty, risk, and uncertainty loadings alongside a healthy dose of Excel to provide a low-risk level of effort when estimating large projects across a number of streams.

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